This week, coal prices at ports around the Bohai Sea continued to be weak, with major coal price indices experiencing a daily decline of 4-5 yuan/ton. It is expected that coal prices will fall to 760-770 yuan/ton. Even if coal prices stop falling and stabilize at the end of the month, there is almost no chance for them to continue rising. Because there is no shortage of coal downstream, even if traders raise prices, the quotes will stop falling and rebound; Under the pressure of high inventory and insufficient terminal procurement, there may be a phenomenon of weak upward momentum.
At present, the coal supply and inventory guarantee in the middle and lower reaches are still relatively sufficient, and cold air frequently visits. The daily consumption of power plants in the eight coastal provinces has risen to about 2.2 million tons, which has increased the driving effect on the consumption side. But downstream, relying on high inventory, maintains essential procurement of coal stored in Beigang; Most terminal enterprises mainly focus on price negotiation and inquiry, with few actual transactions. In the past month, the railway has maintained strong transportation, while downstream coal imports have been strongly replenished, which obviously cannot keep up with the continuous arrival of coal from Beigang. This has led to increasing pressure on ports around the Bohai Sea to relocate, and large coal distribution ports are facing the risk of top warehousing; And it further increases the pressure on traders to sell at a discount, which in turn drives panic selling, and the coal prices in the ports around the Bohai Sea continue to fall. At present, the social inventory remains high, and the actual demand from end-users is limited, making it impossible for coal prices to rise in the short term.
Recently, the inventory of ports around the Bohai Sea has been running at a high level, and the market situation continues to be sluggish. The inventory remains high, and traders' willingness and ability to stock up have decreased. In the later stage, the amount of coal imported into the market by ports around the Bohai Sea is limited. At the same time, coal prices remain weak and their own inventory is still guaranteed. Terminal enterprises are not in a hurry to significantly increase their inventory and still focus on purchasing on demand. The release of demand in the production market is still slow, and coal prices are running steadily with a weak trend. In terms of imports, the peak season for coal use, known as the "peak season for winter", is approaching, and the main production areas are increasing their coal supply, driving the import volume of ports around the Bohai Sea to continue to remain high. In terms of export, the daily consumption of power plants has increased, but the terminal inventory is still in a healthy state, and the northward transportation of coastal power plants still tends to be rigid. But the meteorological conditions are good, and the transfer volume of ports around the Bohai Sea has increased. The ports around the Bohai Sea have unloaded 2.1 million tons of coal in 17 days, but the coal storage is still at a high level of 25.76 million tons. The unloading work is arduous and the road is long.
The coal price has been falling steadily since the last week of September, dropping from 870 yuan/ton to the current 790 yuan/ton, a drop of 80 yuan/ton. Entering winter, cold air activities are frequent, and cold waves are "invading" most parts of China. In some places, temperatures drop sharply, and a "quick freezing" mode is activated, but the pressure of oversupply in the market still exists. On the one hand, the sustained surge in domestic supply and high inventory consumption downstream still require time. In terms of time, when the inventory consumption of downstream power plants is almost over and the Spring Festival off-season is approaching; After New Year's Day, some industrial enterprises will stop production and have holidays ahead of schedule, resulting in a decrease in daily consumption. Power plants will be forced to stockpile coal without the need for large quantities. On the other hand, with the continuous influx of imported coal, the supply side can be said to be always sufficient. The shortage and replenishment of power plants are mainly based on basic needs, which has suppressed the domestic coal prices and made it difficult to rise.
